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The Broken Rung: What Your Promotion Data Says About Your Organization

Author

Charlene Li
December 22, 2025

This question might be uncomfortable:

If your organization were truly a meritocracy, would the numbers reflect that? 

For every 100 men promoted from entry level positions to manager, only 93 women get promoted. And for women of color? Just 74.

That's according to the latest Women in the Workplace 2025 report from McKinsey and LeanIn.Org. And it reveals something critical that every leader needs to confront.

The Broken Rung Keeps Breaking

This isn't new. We've been talking about the "broken rung" for years; that critical first step from entry-level to manager where women get left behind.

But here's what's different this year: The gap is persisting even as companies claim that diversity is a priority.

Women remain underrepresented at every level of the corporate pipeline. Women make up only 29% of the C-suite, which is unchanged from 2024. The broken rung at that very first promotion to manager creates a deficit that compounds at every level above it.

The aggregate numbers mask a deeper problem. When you break down advancement by both gender and race, a troubling pattern emerges: progress for some has come at the expense of others. 

This chart shows the rate of advancement from entry level to manager. For example, in 2025, white men were 35% of entry level workers and 45% of managers, for a ratio of 1.25 (45% divided by 35%). A fair advancement ratio would 1.0, meaning that people advance at the same ratio across all groups.

This chart compares 2016 to 2025 data. White men remain the only troup that advances at a rate higher than their entry level representation. And while white women have made real gains over the past decade, women of color are the only group whose advancement ratio actually declined.

More women of color are entering the workforce but they’re being promoted at an even lower rate than belore.

Two Possible Explanations (But Only One Is True)

When you look at these numbers, there are really only two ways to interpret them:

  1. White men are naturally better at being managers and leaders.

  2. There's bias (likely unintentional, but potentially intentional) happening in promotion decisions.

I'm going to assume you don't believe the first one. Which means we need to deal with the second.

The thing is, most leaders genuinely believe their organizations are fair. They believe in meritocracy. They think they're promoting the best people. 

The data tells a different story.

The AI Collision Course

Here’s where it gets urgent. 

Women are concentrated in exactly the jobs that AI is automating fastest. According to a recent UN International Labour Organization study, women are nearly three times more likely than men to work in jobs at high risk of AI automation. In high-income countries, 9.6% of women’s jobs fall into the highest risk category, compared to just 3.5% for men. 

Why? Women make up 72% of administrative assistants, receptionists, data entry clerks, and customer service representatives, roles where AI can already perform many core tasks. 

So women face a double bind: They’re not getting promoted into leadership roles that are more insulated from automation and they’re concentrated in the jobs most likely to be transformed or eliminated. 

Organizations that don’t fix the broken rung aren’t just being unfair. They’re about to lose this talent entirely. 

We Are What We Measure

Here's what I want you to do: Look at your own numbers.

Pull the promotion data from the last two years. Break it down by gender and race at that critical first step from entry-level to manager.

What do you see?

Because if your organization truly operates as a meritocracy—if you're really promoting people based purely on merit—the numbers should be relatively balanced across demographic groups.

If they're not, you have a problem. Not a diversity problem. A fairness problem.

And being fair isn't just the right thing to do. It's a business imperative.

When Fairness Is Missing, You Can’t Win

The research is clear on this. When employees view their workplace as fair and inclusive, they thrive. They're more motivated, more willing to take risks, and far less likely to feel burned out or consider leaving. 

But when opportunities for advancement aren't fairly allocated, you lose talent. You create a workplace where people are going through the motions rather than bringing their best ideas.You miss out on diverse perspectives that drive better decisions. 

The companies making real progress on women’s representation are pulling ahead. They’re in the top quartile of performance and accelerating while others stagnate. This isn’t coincidence. Organizations that systematically sideline half the talent pool are competing with one hand tied behind their back. 

Three Actions to Fix the Broken Rung

The good news is this is solvable. According to the McKinsey and LeanIn.org report, three strategies matter most:

1️⃣ Ensure hiring and promotions are fair

This means implementing structured processes to reduce bias. Use standardized criteria. Include diverse interview panels. Establish clear mechanisms for surfacing bias in promotion decisions. The companies making the most progress have systems that make fairness visible and measurable.

2️⃣ Equip managers to support career development

Managers are the linchpin. They need clear expectations for career check-ins, training to be effective coaches, and tools to support their direct reports' growth. Right now, women—especially at entry and senior levels—receive less career support from managers than men do. That has to change.

3️⃣ Foster authentic sponsorship

Sponsorship is about leaders who actively advocate for talent, open doors to new opportunities, and invest in others' growth. Sponsors advocate for you when you’re not in the room. Women overall are less likely than men to have sponsors. And entry-level women receive far less sponsorship than any other group.

Here's the thing: When women receive the same career support that men do, the ambition gap falls away. Women are just as committed to their careers as men. But without adequate support, even the most motivated people begin to question whether advancement is possible or worth the cost.

The Question Every Leader Must Answer

So here's where I want to leave you:

Do you believe your organization is a meritocracy?

If yes, then prove it. Look at the data. In particular, look at the intersection between gender and race. One HR leader told me that they didn’t report intersectional advancement numbers, even internally, because they look so bad. If the numbers don't reflect even promotion, you have work to do.

Because we are what we measure. And if we aim to be fair meritocracies, then we need to take a closer look at whether that's actually happening.

The payoff extends far beyond fair opportunity for women. It creates workplaces that work better for everyone; places where all employees can grow, contribute, and build careers filled with possibility.

That’s not just the workplace we should be building. It’s the only way to win. 

🗣️ Your Turn

What do your promotion numbers look like at that first step from entry-level to manager? Have you looked? I'd love to hear what you're discovering and how you're addressing it.

What I Can't Stop Talking About

  • The full Women in the Workplace 2025 report is worth reading in its entirety. It's packed with data and actionable insights for leaders who are serious about creating fair workplaces.

  • Trust in AI isn’t the same as trust in humans. However, leaders looking for stronger AI adoption need to inspire trust in AI. It’s built through continuous testing, verification, and vigilance. Here’s how leaders can make it happen. 

  • Boomers are more excited about AI than Gen Z. Surprising? It might be the key to understanding who should lead your AI pilots for wider adoption. 

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