Four AI Predictions for 2026 — And What to Do About Them

Author

Charlene Li
January 12, 2026

I have a love-hate relationship with predictions.

They're useful in that they tell you what observant people think is coming. But here's my issue: Most prediction lists leave you hanging. Often, they throw a bunch of info at you, and that’s it. They don’t usually offer any actionable advice.

So here's my approach: I'm giving you four predictions for 2026, and with each one, I'm telling you exactly what you need to prioritize. Because knowing what's coming is worthless if you don't know what to do about it.

Prediction #1: The AI Bubble Will Burst – And You’ll Barely Notice

Let me get this out of the way: Yes, it’s likely that we’re in an AI bubble.

The hyperscalers are spending $400 billion this year on AI infrastructure while the actual market is about $37 billion. The math doesn't work. My job at Forrester was literally sizing the internet advertising market that drove the boom and bust. I know what bubbles look like.

But here's the thing: Unless you're a hyperscaler or investing in one, this isn't your crisis.

The dot-com bubble bankrupted Pets.com. But it also built the infrastructure that enabled Amazon and Google to become what they are today. About 48% of dot-com companies survived the crash. The internet didn't go away — it matured.

Today’s hyperscalers are trapped in what I call the Red Queen race from Alice in Wonderland. They’re running as fast as they can just to stay in place. They can't stop spending or they lose the AI scaling wars. 

That's their problem, not yours.

💡 Your Priority: Ignore the noise and focus on creating real value.

The only question you need to ask is: Is AI creating measurable business value for my organization? If yes, accelerate. If no, fix it.

This isn't an investment thesis you're trying to figure out. It's a business value question. The infrastructure will be there regardless of what happens to stock prices. 

Your job is to figure out how to use it.

Prediction #2: Solving a 2026 Cost Problem Will Create a 2029 Leadership Crisis

Entry-level job postings are down. Middle management postings are down. This has been happening for years, but AI is accelerating it.

Here's the dangerous spreadsheet logic: Replace junior roles with AI, cut costs, boost efficiency. It looks great on paper, but it’s disastrous for your leadership pipeline.

AI benefits the experts, the people who can ask it brilliant questions and know how to apply the answers. Those experts need to understand not just how the job works but how your company works. They get that understanding by starting at entry-level positions.

If you eliminate those positions, you eliminate your leadership bench.

💡 Your Priority: Redefine what "entry-level" means in an AI-enabled organization.

When AI handles routine tasks, your competitive advantage comes from humans who can lead, judge, and inspire—the things AI cannot do. You need a pipeline of people who can develop those capabilities.

This means rethinking onboarding. It means investing in training. It means defining new kinds of entry-level work that builds the judgment and expertise you'll need in five years.

Prediction #3: Most Companies Will Declare AI Victory in 2026 — Prematurely

I see this everywhere: Organizations deploy ChatGPT or Copilot across the company and think they're done. "We deployed AI!" No. You deployed a tool.

The data speaks for itself. Among ChatGPT Enterprise users, companies that rolled it out organization-wide saw these numbers:

  • 19% have never done any data analysis with it

  • 14% have never used the advanced reasoning tools

  • More than 40% of knowledge workers say AI at work is unreliable compared to what they use personally

These organizations are confusing access with adoption — and deployment with transformation. Having the tool isn't the same as embedding it into how work actually gets done.

💡 Your Priority: Move from experimentation to business-led strategy.

AI is a technology. It's not a strategy. Strategy is figuring out which workflows would benefit from AI, redesigning those workflows, and embedding AI directly into how work gets done.

This requires business leaders who understand what creates value, not just technologists who know how to deploy tools. If your IT team is still leading your AI efforts and the business people are not, that's a red flag.

Prediction #4: AI Is Quietly Destroying Your Differentiation

Here's the paradox: We're adopting AI for competitive advantage, but it's making everyone's strategy, marketing, culture, and values narrow toward the same acceptable middle.

You can see it now in social media and marketing content; so much of it sounds AI-generated because we're all using the same data sources, asking similar questions, getting similar answers.

AI can be incredibly creative. But only if we ask creative questions.

💡 Your Priority: Use AI to amplify what's unique about you, not to blend in.

When AI is the price of admission, authenticity is how you win.

Right now, 5% of companies are seeing real AI value. That will grow to 50%. The gap between companies that use AI well and companies that just use it to stay in the race will become permanent.

This is where leadership becomes non-negotiable. The high performers are three times more likely to have senior leaders actively involved and role modeling AI use. They're not delegating AI to IT — they're showing up, experimenting publicly, and asking: "How do we use AI for competitive advantage, not just efficiency?"

Some companies are creating what they call "AI-free zones." These aren't anti-AI spaces. They're places where you actively use AI to inform decisions, explore options, and analyze scenarios—but you reserve the final judgment for humans. 

You amplify human experience, wisdom, and leadership. That's where differentiation lives.

The Knowing-Doing-Leading Gap

This is the pattern I see across all four predictions: Leaders know they need to be involved in AI. Some are actually using it themselves. But very few are showing up to lead it.

The leaders who will win are the ones who:

  • Explore and experiment publicly

  • Show they're learning and making mistakes alongside everyone else

  • Actively ask: "How do we use AI for competitive advantage, not just efficiency?"

This has to be intentional. It has to be strategic. And it has to come from leadership.

💭 Your Turn

Which of these predictions hits closest to home for your organization? Are you facing a talent pipeline problem? Struggling to move past tool deployment? Fighting to maintain differentiation?

What I Can't Stop Talking About

  • Frontline managers are your secret weapon in AI adoption. They’re the ones with feet on the ground, working in a strategic space that allows them to support their teams doing more with AI. Here’s how to invest in your managers. 

  • Tracking AI ROI in dollars is missing the point. AI is like email: It may not pay off dollar-for-dollar, but it’s changing the game in a way that can’t be undone. The gap between those with an AI strategy and those without will be cemented this year. 

  • “Leading Disruption” has a release date! Watch this space for launch news about the book Dr. Katia Walsh and I have been writing together.  

My Upcoming Appearances/Travel

If you found this note helpful, please forward and share it with someone who needs the inspiration today. If you were forwarded this, please consider subscribing.

Join me on Facebook, Instagram, LinkedIn, and Twitter.